To those who ask, "Is all this really worth it? Why can't domestic demand fill the gap?", it is important to remind them that only 13 economies since the Second World War have grown at 7 per cent or more for 25 years -- like India needs to. They all had one thing in common: Strong export growth underpinned by strong global engagement, explains Sajjid Z Chinoy.
The liquidity will move into deficit after advance tax payments and GST outflows. It will rebound in October because of government spending.
'When the Galwan incident took place, that was a big break in the trust factor between India and China.'
'For the Indian economy to maintain a growth rate of 7 to 8 per cent, it needs large foreign direct investment coming in, and that's mainly coming from the US.'
Investors should tilt their portfolios towards domestic-facing defensive sectors, which should help provide stability and shield them from geopolitical and tariff risks.
The official said there are both challenges and opportunities for India as many of its competitor countries in exports, such as China Vietnam, Bangladesh, Cambodia and Thailand, face higher duties.
India would neither succumb to the Americans on issues of national security, such as its defence ties with Russia, nor cede ground on its domestic interests in the agriculture and dairy sectors.
The government has set up an inter-ministerial group to monitor a possible surge in imports from countries like China, Vietnam and Thailand, fearing a surge in inbound shipments following the imposition of high reciprocal tariffs by the US on these countries, sources said. The product categories that may see an upsurge in diversion of imports from the US to India include consumer goods, electronics, chemicals and steel.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato surged over 7 per cent. Maruti, ITC Hotels, ITC, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Titan and IndusInd Bank were among the biggest gainers. Power Grid, Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, UltraTech Cement, HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, Infosys and Adani Ports were among the laggards.
India's merchandise exports in October rose by 17.25 per cent to $39.2 billion against $33.43 billion a year ago, according to government data released on Thursday. Imports increased by 3.9 per cent to $66.34 billion in October compared to $63.86 billion in the year-ago period.
'We need to be very vigilant as we are passing through some fraught times.'
Gold prices rallied by Rs 630 to a lifetime high of Rs 82,700 per 10 grams in the national capital on Wednesday following persistent buying by jewellers and retailers amid strong global trends, according to the All India Sarafa Association. Rallying for the sixth straight session, gold of 99.5 per cent purity appreciated by Rs 630 to hit a lifetime high of Rs 82,330 per 10 grams.
Donald Trump's tariffs, meant as political punishment, have avoided the predicted chaos, lifting US growth, weakening rivals, and letting him claim victory in a resilient global economy, observes T T Ram Mohan.
United States President Donald Trump on Sunday criticised the trade deficits that the US has with Canada, Mexico, China, and argued that America should no longer 'subsidise' other countries, and urged businesses to manufacture domestically to avoid tariffs.
India's purchase of US crude oil has picked up in 2025 and could easily double their previous levels, government officials said on Wednesday. The surge comes in the wake of the then-incoming Donald Trump administration's announcement that it would consider hiking tariffs on a reciprocal basis, and pushed some countries, especially those with large trade surpluses with the US, to buy more of its energy.
The heightened global uncertainty due to the US "reciprocal tariffs" on India may cause near-term corrections and market turbulence, but the long-term outlook remains constructive, market experts said on Thursday. The US has announced 27 per cent reciprocal tariffs on India, citing high import duties imposed by New Delhi on American goods.
India is preparing to resume the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra, a pilgrimage to Mount Kailash in Tibet, after a three-year hiatus. The decision comes as part of efforts to improve relations between India and China, which have been strained since a military standoff in 2020. The two countries have also agreed in principle to resume flight services between them.
US President-elect Donald Trump has renewed his offer to make Canada the 51st state of the United States, hours after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned. Trump has been pushing this idea since his November 5 electoral victory, citing economic benefits and security concerns. Trump's offer has not been met with much reaction from the Canadian side.
India's leading steel companies hope the Modi 3.0 Budget will continue the massive capital expenditure currently underway, focusing on infrastructure development, manufacturing, and fair trade. The infrastructure segment is the largest steel user, and the government's focus has fuelled steel consumption even as international markets have underperformed. According to provisional statistics, steel consumption grew 13.6 per cent in FY24, reaching 136 million tonnes (mt), according to a CRISIL report.
Trump may temper his approach from time to time, but to think that he will change his basic philosophy is delusional, asserts T T Ram Mohan.
The commerce ministry is working on different scenarios to assess the possible fallout of reciprocal tariffs to be imposed by the US administration on April 2 on its key trading partners including India, sources said. US President Donald Trump has said that April 2 will be 'Liberation Day' as he plans to announce tariffs or import duties to bring down America's trade deficit, and promote the country's manufacturing.
Deloitte on Thursday projected economic growth at 6.5-6.7 per cent for the current fiscal, as tax incentives provided in the Budget are expected to push domestic demand amid an uncertain global trade environment. Deloitte estimated India's GDP growth at 6.3-6.5 per cent for FY25 and said that the economic outlook for FY26 hinges on a delicate balance between evolving trade relations and government efforts to boost domestic consumer demand.
The government's initiative to migrate SEZ data from NSDL software to ICEGATE system for streamlined reporting of import data caused double counting of gold imports, resulting in inflated figures and the issue has now been largely rectified, government sources said. The downward revision has provided the actual picture of trade deficit (difference between imports and exports), which was earlier looking very high. The deficit for November will now be revised downwards from $37.84 billion to about $32.8 billion. Similarly, there will be a revision in overall import numbers as well.
'What the US appears to be doing is to force India to be "the buyer of last resort", on whom their products can be dumped, 1.4 billion people have to eat something, so why not eat American corn?' 'What is exercising the Trump lot is the fact that most of the farms are in solidly Republican Midwestern states: Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin,' points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Domestic customers will get access to high-quality Swiss products such as watches, chocolates, biscuits, and clocks at lower prices as India will phase out customs duties under its trade pact with the EFTA bloc on these goods over a period of time. India and the four-European nation bloc EFTA signed a trade and economic partnership agreement (TEPA) on Sunday to boost trade and investments between the two regions. The European Free Trade Association (EFTA) members are Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland.
The country's current account deficit widened marginally to $9.7 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in April-June 2024, as against $8.9 billion or 1 per cent in the year-ago period, Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. The crucial number representing the country's external sector strength has come on the heels of a surplus of $4.6 billion or 0.5 per cent of GDP recorded in the preceding January-March quarter. The Reserve Bank attributed the year-on-year widening in current account deficit to a rise in merchandise trade gap which was recorded at $65.1 billion in Q1 FY25 as compared to $56.7 billion in the year-ago period.
'We continue to view India as a standout within EM.'
India's current account deficit declined sharply to 1 per cent of the GDP or $8.3 billion in the second quarter of this financial year, mainly due to lower merchandise trade deficit and growth in services exports, according to a RBI data released on Tuesday. The current account deficit (CAD), which represents the difference between the total amount of money sent abroad and money received from overseas across the economy, was 3.8 per cent of GDP or $30.9 billion in the July-September quarter in 2022-23. CAD was $9.2 billion or 1.1 per cent of GDP in the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year 2023-24.
India's gold imports, which have a bearing on the country's current account deficit (CAD), increased 26.7 per cent to $35.95 billion during the April-December of this fiscal due to healthy demand, according to government data. The imports stood at $28.4 billion during the same period a year ago. In December 2023, imports of the precious metal jumped by 156.5 per cent to $3 billion, as per the data released by the commerce ministry.
'I certainly hope the two can avoid a trade war and believe they will.' 'I expect some in India will push for retaliatory tariffs if the Trump administration applies significant reciprocal tariffs.'
As China continues to wobble from the global recession -- with real estate as well as the entrepreneurial index considerably down, especially around the Pearl Delta -- new windows of opportunities are opening for India to enhance its own market leverage over China, analysts say.
'Any finality in such matters requires political views. We will review it closer to the full Budget.'
'Don't play the American game... India is too big for a US game.'
If Beijing succeeds in this multipronged effort to challenge the current dominant power, it will have not just economic but political and security consequences. There is no let-up in the South China Sea nor any de-escalation moves on the India-China border. This portends to ominous signalling from Beijing, observes China expert Srikanth Kondapalli.
India's foreign exchange reserves have jumped to an all-time high of $651.5 billion as of May 31, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Friday. This means the overall kitty has increased by $4.83 billion since the last reported number of $646.673 billion on May 24 this year.
India's current account deficit widened to $6.1 billion and the trade deficit increased to $18.5 billion even as exports surged by 17 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal.
'Investors' decisions should reflect their financial goals, risk tolerance, and the amount of gold already present in their portfolio.'
'If the Trump administration decides to put guardrails on H-1B visas, that will surely impact both US and Indian firms.'
The controversy followed after another Madhya Pradesh minister, Vijay Shah, came under fire for remarks about Col Sofiya Qureshi who conducted media briefings on Operation Sindoor along with Wing Commander Vyomika Singh.
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